The markets final week certainly behaved as if a consequential shift was afoot, with a few of the trendiest trades falling rapidly out of favor, months’ value of bond-market bets unwound in days and the trusty rotational dance amongst kinds of shares not sufficient to rescue the tape from a 2% drop.
There have been some stark adjustments — in perceptions about Federal Reserve intentions, pricing of inflation danger and positioning throughout asset lessons. However how a lot is actually totally different now concerning the Fed coverage path, the elemental backdrop and the tactical set-up, in a market caught offside and inclined, as ever, to short-term overshoots?
The week began with hedge-fund luminary Paul Tudor Jones saying traders ought to “go all in on the inflation trades” if the Fed confirmed nonchalance about current stout inflation knowledge. The remainder of the week noticed the markets act as if too many had been already loaded up with these inflation trades, and after Fed officers confirmed barely extra concern about inflation than anticipated, these trades blew up spectacularly.